ginenthal on sagan

    : bowen@netgate.net (Bowen Simmons)
    : I've taken some effort to run to ground some of the Ginenthal - Sagan
    : stuff.  There are some points that do in fact reflect badly on Sagan. 
    : There are however, even more points that reflect badly on Ginenthal. 

Many of these points are apparent from Ginenthal's presentation directly. Ginenthal very often does a sleight of hand trick, taking two quotes of Sagan's discussing two distinct things, and juxtaposing them as if Sagan is contradicting himself. About on a par with "See, over here Sagan says apples are red. But over there he says oranges are orange. So which is it, red or orange?"

Not all Ginenthal's points fit this schema, but many recognizably do, if you are a bit more familiar with the so-called "hard" sciences than Ginenthal aparently is.

Some specific examples follow. The indented text is Ginenthal as quoted by Ted Holden.

Carl Sagan ridiculed Velikovsky for saying that comets can take on the shapes of different animals through distortion during interactions with other celestial bodies or electromagnetic phenomenon.1 Although Sagan ridiculed Velikovsky for suggesting this, he nevertheless, has a chapter in his own book, Comet, titled "A Cometary Bestiary," in which he claims that comets do take on the shapes of animals.2

For example, on October 5, 1993 Sagan spoke to a mass audience of about 5,000 at the University of Florida at Tallahassee. In that audience were two students, Adam Stuart and John Godowski, who wanted to raise the issue of Sagan's statements about Velikovsky. [...] Sagan would have none of this and had the microphone into which Stuart was speaking killed, and delivered a statement that scientists do not take Velikovsky seriously. [...] John Godowski who held up another copy of my book and again raised the question on Sagan and Velikovsky and, lo and behold, the microphone again went dead

Not a presto-changeo on Ginenthal's part, but not persuasively indicative of bad behavior on Sagan's part, either.

Robert Anton Wilson describes one of these peccadillos thus: [.. Sagan tries to steal Velikovsky's thunder about venus temperature ..] [] page 153 of Broca's Brain [] ONE NOW FASHIONABLE SUGGESTION I FIRST PROPOSED IN 1960 IS THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE SURFACE OF VENUS ARE DUE TO A RUNAWAY GREENHOUSE EFFECT. (All emphasis added and deserved) "First, Sagan claims that Dr. Velikovsky does not deserve credit for predicting high temperatures on Venus because everybody knew it, although historical fact shows that only Dr. Wildt had made the same prediction before Velikovsky. Then Sagan either tells a double lie or else suffers an alarming memory lapse that may require neurological consultation claiming that neither Dr. Wildt nor Dr. Velikovsky had made this prediction (which they had, and he had noted earlier) -- and then he brazenly claims he had originated it himself. Quite a performance wouldn't you say?"10

Indeed, strictly speaking, he didn't even say he was the *first* to suggest it, only that he suggested it.

Sagan is perfectly correct to say that others had expected venus' surface to be hotter than an earth-like planet with earth-like atmosphere would be at that distance from the sun. Some of these predictions predate Velikovsky, and Velikovsky's "prediction" is very cagey about supplying any actual numbers or *specific* mechanism.

So, here the prestidigitation is between "prediction of high temperature", and "proposal of one specific mechanism".

SAGAN CONFRONTS SAGAN

Sagan the Critic: "Velikovsky[s] ... statement (page 283) that meteorites, when entering the Earth's atmosphere, make a frightful din, when they are generally observed to be silent;11

Sagan the Scientist: [Nonsense] "Meteorites ... can be heard; they and the fireball produce on occasion a sonic boom or a deep rumbling roar ..."12 "The Herero call them buzzing stones which doubtless reflects some direct experience with meteorite falls."13

Sagan the Critic: "If, therefore, Velikovsky's proto-Venus comet were a member of some family of objects, like the Apollo Objects or the comets, the chance of finding one Velikovskian comet 6,000 km in radius would be far less than of finding one some tens of km in radius."14

Sagan the Scientist: [That's not true at all.] "It is entirely plausible that much bigger comets than those several kilometer across were ejected into the Oort Cloud."15

Sagan the Critic: "He [Velikovsky] points to certain concordant stories, directly or vaguely connected with celestial [cometary] events that refer to a witch ... clearly interpretable ... to culturally isolated peoples of very different backgrounds. No attempt is made to show that a clear form - for example, a woman riding a broom and topped with a pointed hat, could have been produced in this way,..."19

Sagan the Scientist: "When we see a picture of a comet some of us are immediately reminded of a woman with long straight hair being blown back behind her, ..."20 "Pliny noted the appearance of a comet too brilliant to be looked at directly; it was white with silver hair and resembled a god in human form ... The configuration of a coma can be complicated, and can suggest a human form."21 And you know Dr. Sagan, that witches are women who have a human form.

Sagan the Critic: "From this it is easy to calculate backwards from simple tidal theory ... that Velikovsky is talking about a grazing collision: the surfaces of Earth and Venus scrape!"22

Sagan the Scientist: [Then why did you say just the opposite, in that] "Velikovsky believes that the close passage of Venus or Mars to the Earth would have produced tides at least miles high kilometers away, as he [Velikovsky] seems to think, the tides like Earth and Venus "scrape" and at the same time be "tens of thousands of kilometers" apart, as Velikovsky maintained they were!

However, note that this doesn't really rescue Velikovsky's theory, since the catastrophe for an approach to "tens of thousands of kilometers" produces a catastrophe far, far worse than Velikovsky seems to realize, or have calculated. Velikovsky can be rescued, by presuming the planets were a bit further away.

But as a criticism of Sagan, the worse here is that "Sagan made and mistake, and corrected it elsewhere."

At this point, Ginehthal is arguably 2-for-2, or (generously) even 3-for-1 in S.vs.S, but from now on, the pellets are well wide of the target.

Sagan the Critic: "Velikovsky's thesis has some peculiar biological and chemical consequences, which are compounded by some straightforward confusionon simple matters. He seems not to know (page 16) [in the early history of the Earth] that oxygen is produced by green- plant photosynthesis on the Earth."24

Sagan the Scientist: "[Sagan's] thesis has some peculiar biological and chemical consequences, which are compounded by some straightforward confusion on simple matters he seems not to know25 [in the early history of the Earth that ... ultraviolet light is lethal to green plants. You see?] "oxygen generated by green plants must have been in short supply before the Earth was covered by vegetation. But ozone is generated from oxygen. No oxygen, no ozone. If there's no ozone, the searing ultraviolet (UV) from the Sun will penetrate to the ground. The intensity of UV at the surface of the Earth in those early days may have reached lethal levels"26 [and killed the green plants before they could even develop and generate oxygen which would form ozone to protect them!]

Ginenthal's attempt to patch together an ozone paradox is rather weak, BTW. If the first photosynthetic life arose in water, UV could be fatal at the surface, but not where the photosynthesis is going on.

Sagan the Critic: "... most geologists have concluded, petroleum arises from decaying vegetation of the Carboniferous and other early geological epochs, and not from comets."27

Sagan the Scientist: "[Decaying vegetation of the Carboniferous and other geological epochs is organic and, as you stated] "Organic only refers to molecules based on carbon. And organic chemicals would be produced and destroyed even if there were no life anywhere in the universe."28 "... if the Earth never outgassed at all, comets may still have brought an atmosphere, an ocean and huge quantities of organic matter. Thus, in seeking the source of organic molecules from which we [and green plants] come, we are in the embarrassing position of having two different, and apparently equally successful hypotheses."29 [So as you can see, petroleum can arise equally from both comets and plants.]

Bringing up an early accretion scenario of billions of years age has nothing to do with deciding between biological origins millions of years old vs non-biological origins thousands of years old.

Sagan the Critic: "Reading the text [of Worlds in Collision, by Velikovsky] is made still more difficult by the apparent conclusion (page 366) of Martian polar caps made of manna which are described ambiguously as probably in the nature of carbon. Carbohydrates have a strong 3.5 micron infrared absorption feature due to the stretching vibration of the carbon-hydrogen bond. No trace of this feature wasobserved in infrared spectra of the Martian polar caps taken by the Mariner 6 and 7 spacecrafts in 1969."30

Sagan the Scientist: [Don't you remember what you wrote only months before you raised this issue, Carl?] "Mars has in its winter hemisphere a large polar cap which, at various times, has been ascribed to frozen water or frozen carbon dioxide. Even at the present time its composition is unsettled."31

Thus, the presto-swapo seems to be between "probably in the nature of carbon" vs "carbon dioxide". It's fairly clear that Velikovsky's "in the nature of carbon" is not a reference to frozen C02 gas.

Sagan the Critic: "Finally, there is a curious reference to intelligent extraterrestrial life [on Mars] in Worlds in Collision. On page 364, Velikovsky argues that the near collisions of Mars with the Earth and Venus make it highly improbable that any higher forms of life, if they previously existed there survived on Mars."32

Sagan the Scientist: [Carl, don't you remember suggesting that the low density of Phobos, Mars' satellite, leaves] "only one possibility? ... Could Phobos be indeed rigid, on the outside - but hollow on the inside? A natural satellite cannot be a hollow object. Therefore, we are led to the possibility that Phobos - and possibly Deimos [Mars' other small satellite] as well - may be artificial satellites of Mars.

Sagan the Critic: "But when we examine Mars as seen by Mariner 9 and Viking 1 and 2, we find that a bit more than one-third of the planet has a modified cratered terrain ... and that it shows no sign of spectacular catastrophes other than ancient impacts."35

Sagan the Scientist: [I wish you thought about that before you said it. Don't you remember saying about Mars that] "The resulting geological maps reveal an enormous array of linear ridges and grooves that surround the Tarsis Plateau [on Mars] -- as if a third or a quarter of the whole surface of Mars were cracked in some colossal recent event that lifted Tarsis."36 [How can a colossal recent event that cracked Mars open and lifted the Tarsis Plateau be reconciled with your statement that Mars "shows no sign of spectacular catastrophes other than ancient impacts?" And with respect to ancient impacts on Mars, you also did a calculation "using Mariner 9 wind data, Dr. Carl Sagan of Cornell University calculated erosion rates [on Mars] assuming a dust storm peak of 100 mph blowing 10 percent of the time. This would mean erosion of 10 km [6.2 miles] of surface [erosion] in 100 million years."37 [On the basis of this kind of erosion rate you said] "the rate of sand blasting by wind- transported grains on Mars is perhaps 10,000 times greater than the rate on the Earth ..." (Carl Sagan, "The Solar System," (San Francisco, 1975), p. 9) [You, therefore, concluded] "Because of the efficiency of Martian crater erosion -- regardless of the mechanism -- "the surface we see is not that of very ancient Mars."38 [You can't say Martian craters are ancient and also claim they are not ancient based on erosion.]

Sagan the Critic: [With respect to Velikovskian Manna from heaven] "... it is now known that comets contain large quantities of simple nitriles -- in particular, hydrogen cyanide and methyl cyanide. These are poisons, and it is not immediately obvious that comets are good to eat."39

Sagan the Scientist: "In any case, the tails of comets are extraordinarily thin, a wisp of smoke in a vacuum. The cyanogen [poison] is in turn a minor constituent in the tails of comets. Even if the Earth had passed through the tail [of Halley's Comet] in 1910 and the molecules in the tail had been thoroughly mixed down to the surface of the Earth, there would have been only one molecule of cyanogen in every trillion molecules of air -- a good deal less than the pollution caused even far from cities by industrial and automobile exhaust (and much less than what would happen in the burning of cities in a nuclear war)..."40

[.. so, are there hydrocarbon clouds or not ..]

Sagan the Critic: "[Velikovsky] believes that Mars ... should have a high temperature ... in the same section he badly states Mars emits more heat than it receives from the Sun ... This statement is dead wrong."43

Sagan the Scientist: "It has long been known that the observed temperature of Mars is 30 degrees centigrade higher than would result from the Sun shining on an airless planet at its distance."44

Sagan the Critic: [The surface of Venus is old because] "the planet [Venus] is ... cratered abundantly; perhaps like parts of the Moon, saturation cratered ... that is, so packed with craters that one crater overlaps the other."45

Sagan the Scientist: "There is still debate about whether such craters are of impact or volcanic origin, but the sparseness of craters on Venus shows that the surface is continually being modified - probably by vulcanism as on Io."46

Velikovskians can rejoice that Sagan turns out wrong here; Venus' surface levels of vulcanism are no where near those of Io. It might be a bit of a wet blanket on the rejoicing to note that the details on the cratering contradict Velikovskian expectations.

[.. Ginenthal addresses virtual-Sagan ..] [Look at all the contradictions you've made and all the doubletalk. How will all of this look to the public and the press when they read this?]